Holy Cow!

Spot-On normally uses the first newsletter of the year to reflect on the last and look ahead. This year we feel it necessary to start by channeling the late great Yankee shortstop (and poet) Phil Rizzuto.

Holy Cow!

There’s a lot more we could say – but none of it is printable.

A lot of things changed last year and some of those changes are going to keep rolling through this year. We don’t pretend to know the end game here; too much is still unresolved and incomplete. So rather than our usual predictions, we’re going to go with some observations that we hope are helpful.

We Are All Georgia

Now that it’s won big and won in the clutch, it looks like the Stacey Abrams approach to voter outreach is here to stay.  This could mean real battles in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania and – this year – in Virginia as both parties look not at the lists of who’s voted but start compiling lists of people to encourage them to vote.

Local News On The Rise

There’s a trend complementing the Abrams-style outreach. Readership for local news sites – and elected officials interest in supporting those sites – has increased in the past year. News readers are voters – or likely to be voters.

Buying ads on local sites has two benefits. Campaigns and advocacy efforts can talk directly to people who are active and interested in their communities and likely to be voters. They can also talk to editorial teams and publishers – supplementing earned media coverage.

There’s a trend complementing this shift: Publishers are showing a much stronger interest in setting ad rates for their sites and reaping that revenue directly rather than from remote third parties. So many are curtailing platforms’ access and looking at their subscribers, the first step in being able to talk to advertisers in detail about their readers.

Targeting on the Decline

Last year started with a slate of privacy law changes at the state level but most were delayed by Covid stay-at-home orders. This year, with lawmakers finding ways to work with social distancing in mind, passage of these laws is likely to accelerate.

That’s the first blow to the use of voter data to target ads. There are some others.

  • A reluctance by ad platforms, long the go-to for political campaigns to run political ads – While Google and Facebook, the big players here, have come and gone on these issues, it’s likely that their legislative battles at the state and federal level might move political off the platforms.
  • New federal regulation –  The Federal Election Commission has a full slate of members for the first time in eight years. Its former Chair Ellen Weintraub has campaigned tirelessly for digital ad disclosures and disclaimers. It’s likely she’ll get something done this year.
  • Apple’s push to protect the privacy of its users. The most recent Apple software update will require opt-ins for tracking on all the applications it offers, including Facebook. This means iOS users – who tend to live on the Coasts, have high incomes and corresponding computer literacy and privacy awareness – are going to be curtailed.

The end result of all of this, as this Politico story put it: many consultants feel as though the rug has been pulled out from under them. It hasn’t really; we’re just seeing a long series of trends pile up on one another to create big change. Not like anyone in politics doesn’t get that.

If your outreach has depended entirely on platforms, that rug has indeed been pulled out. But if your scope has and is broadening, there’s plenty to see.

Spot-On’s approach to online ad placement for political has long concentrated on local, known outlets. We’re growing our list of sites and alternatives with our own Pinpoint Placement platform and other vendors.

Drop us a line and we’ll tell you more about how we can help you find a new run, some different platforms and a new way of looking at digital ad placement.

The Maddening Crowd

It’s going to take a while for the professional political class to digest the 2020 election. Trends that popped up and were dismissed in 2016 came roaring back. And there was plenty of new stuff.

One thing is clear, however. Like 2016, the 2020 election brought a lot of new voters to the polls. And many of them didn’t fit neatly into predictable categories.

So, once again, it was harder for pollsters and their handmaidens in the political press corps to make sweeping generalizations. Bummer, huh?

This newsletter is written by a former political reporter so we aren’t going to shy away from sweeping generalizations about the role that digital outreach played in the 2020 election. Old habits die hard.

New York Times columnist Kevin Roose, who is more of a tech guy than a political guy, had a must-read write-up of how the Biden campaign used digital outreach. There are some real insights there.

Rather than treat online activity as just another screen to be flooded with ads, the Biden folks tailored messages to specific platforms and specific users on those platforms. They looked at digital outreach as something separate and distinct from other forms of paid media.

On Facebook, the campaign found surrogates (also known as “influencers”) to carry its message. They paid attention to feedback loops from the platforms to reinforce messaging and they steered away from simply reusing TV ads to plaster news feeds and YouTube.

Since Facebook and Google put limits on how political ads could appear (some efforts more successful than others), the Biden campaign was most likely making a virtue of necessity. But their winning approach has implications for future campaigns. Digital outreach on social platforms is a lot more like field – reaching people where they are online – than media buying.

This is going to make a lot more sense since the ability to track and follow voters using data about online behavior is dying. Privacy law is doing away with cookie matching and so-called voter match targeting is following right behind it.

Which bring us to another sweeping generalization about 2020: targeting using assumptions about voter behavior is also dying. Campaigns need to collect and use their own data about voters instead of relying on warmed-over observations from prior campaigns.

The pool of voters isn’t just bigger, it’s more diverse. So pollsters were surprised to see Asians and some Spanish-speakers support Republicans. And suburban women split their votes, supporting President-elect Biden against President Trump but supporting Republican lawmakers at the state and federal level.

This ticket splitting might be the result of a trend that’s going to have the biggest impact of all: voting when it’s convenient for you by the most convenient means. Call it whatever suits – vote-by-mail, permanent absentee voting, early voting – but the idea that voters are all going to turn out on one dramatic day is over and done.

So the focus may well shift away from getting out the vote to getting the vote in. This technique was used with great success by California governor Gavin Newsom in his first run for San Francisco Mayor. By the time election day rolled around, Newsom had won. His victory was the result of a concerted effort to first encourage then track permanent absentee voters in San Francisco.

Or to repeat a sweeping generalization much loved by the political class: as goes California, so goes the nation. Corralling ballots – with social media surrogates, specific messages in specific languages, via paid ads, email or texts – is going to be the strategy that wins elections in the near and long-term.

And, of course, Spot-On’s here to help. Pinpoint Persuasion direct buying platform will debut in mid-January. We’ll have information about trusted local outlets in your statehouse and Congressional districts as well as zip search and a ton of information about sites and voters.

Want to kick the tires with a demo? Drop us a line.

Putting Things in Context

It’s gotten a fancy high-tech name now but the old fashion technique that political ad buyers have relied on – buying ads where they think they’ll find voters – is coming back with a vengeance.

This time around it’s called “contextual targeting.” Which means that advertisers run ads where they’ll reach people who care about the things related to the ad messaging. You know, like buying local TV news during an election!

The main driver behind this back to the future renaming is a series of actions that may well come to be called the “online privacy wars,” a fight among web browsers to see who’s best at reassuring customers all the while throwing shade on Google and Facebook.

Here’s Apple’s opening salvo off a page from Hearst’s SFGate website.

The SFGate page has 27 trackers, according to Apple. Some of which are companies that have almost nothing to do with news publishing and a lot to do with following people around the web to sell them stuff. Here’s Firefox’s version of the tracking on CNN which has 24 of the pesky little bots on alert.

Both of these privacy tools are, of course, aimed at Google and Facebook. Firefox, which is run by a bunch of super nerds has always worried about user privacy – well ahead of everyone else. Apple’s getting in on the game to make sure its well-off, well-educated customers know the company is, to invert a phrase, not doing evil.

Tracking is creepy and most people aren’t aware of it. And when they are aware they don’t like it. So, it’s a good bet that the average web user seeing these warnings might have a new interest in some of the once-boring conversations about privacy, tech policy and regulation.

Over the past two years, Congress has had a big think about Big Tech and, well, it’s decided that what happens online is something that bears watching. Hearings through this year, largely ignored by anyone with anything else to do – like run a political campaign – did a pretty good job of educating lawmakers to the ins and outs of how tech companies operate. It wasn’t pretty.

Put another way: The stage is set for regulation. And if it’s not legislative regulation, it may be court-ordered controls.

What does all this mean for your average political campaign: big changes, that’s what. Because the regulation isn’t just aimed at how companies behave; it’s squarely aimed at reining in their ability to collect and sell data about their customers.

Which means that political campaigns going to have to think about online targeting in a new way. The reliance – and mistaken belief that so-called voter matching enabled advertiser to reach specific individuals – is thwarted by privacy concerns and laws. Restrictions on how user data can be used will put up more obstacles.

Why? So-called voter-match targeting isn’t targeting voters. It’s targeting people who may be like the voter a campaign wants to reach. Maybe they share a similar financial or credit history; live in the same neighborhood, own the same type of car. So when people get more control over the information used to make those associations – if a user can block CNN and SFGate’s trackers – that user has opted out all ad targeting, not just political.

So, we’re back to the future. It’s in political campaigns best interest to buy ads on local news site because – just like TV – people who vote are people who care about local news.

And local news sites, having weathered what can only be described as an extended depression, are coming back. Bad news, as anyone in the news business would happily tell you, is very good for business. And there’s been no shortage of that lately.

The problem that’s emerging with folks who are interested in contextually targeting political ads is the fractured nature of the marketplace. Well, we here at Spot-On have made the same observation. Over the next few months you’ll be hearing about our Pinpoint Placement platform which allows campaigns of all sizes to buy ads on local news – and other sites – by election district.

If you’d like an early preview to learn how you can target local news outlets – by state legislative, Congressional district or zip code – drop us a line.

You Are Not Alone

This newsletter, coming to you at the beginning of the earnest and chaotic political buying cycle, comes with some good news.

You are not alone.

A recent survey by Centro, a Chicago and Toronto-based programmatic ad buying firm, says that political ad buyers are worried about a range of issues facing this political year. The know there are landmines out there, they’re just not sure when they’re going to go off.

To which Spot-On says, “d’uh”.

Regular readers know most of this but to re-cap (and kinda humble brag) here are the results with links to our earlier newsletters on the topics.

Worried about changes platforms have made for political ads (81% say this is a big problem) and corresponding concerns about the ability to target voters on the minds of most buyers (66%).

Getting clients to pay attention to digital (64%) or increase budgets (55%).

Covid-19 as a distraction for voters (53%). We actually don’t think this is as big a deal because Covid-related news is driving the surge in online searches for information.

Brand safety and ad fraud worries (40% each).

Changing state and federal regulation (38%).

If you open this newsletter even semi-regularly, there’s no news here. So bear with us while we repeat ourselves.

Buy your political ads directly from publishers. It’s not just good business, it’s good politics. Publisher are paying more attention to their website than ever before. Your ads will be seen – and appreciated.

A well-run online ad buy can avoid waste – without voter targeting.  Advertising on trusted news sites reaches voters. Look for ways to target by geographic and zip, not just voter lists. And use high-impact ads that can generate attention both inside and outside the newsroom.

Spot-On knows the local news market. We have a database of more than 4500 trusted local sites in cities and town across the country. We can tell you who serves your district and advise you on options and buying strategies.

Want more? Drop us a line and let us show how our new platform makes your ad buying easier, clearer and more secure. 

Closing In

With the Friday announcement that it was cancelling contracts with political ad buyers, Adobe – a venerable Silicon Valley company – is sending a clear signal: Political ads are too hot to handle.

The Adobe news broke at the end of a week that saw The Big Tech Four on the hot seat before Congress and word that Hulu, Facebook, Verizon and Google made an editorial judgement about a political ad.

These are all indication of how the established practices in the online political world are changing – and a hint that they may change again before the election.

Of course, these practices aren’t all that established. The current (but fading) fad for voter targeting – also known as ‘micro-targeting’ really came to the forefront in 2016 when campaigns became convinced – wrongly – that online targeting was the same as mail targeting.

It’s not. It never was, especially for anything smaller than a Congressional race. But using voter targeting to buy remnant ads via platform dashboards – which is what Adobe’s stopped on its platform – is an easy and fast way to buy lots of cheap ads and avoid oversight by regulators. No editorial or legal review. No need for substantiation or disclaimers.

So, oversight is the big news here. Google, Hulu, Facebook and Verizon (which now owns the still-popular Yahoo!) have actually looked at the ad and decided not to run it. Adobe, realizing somewhat belatedly that its acquisition of TubeMogul in late 2016 brought them a political business, decided to remove a potential PR nightmare like the one dogging Facebook.

There’s more change coming between now and the election as shortcuts taken for granted by many online advertisers get closed off. Here are two more important changes we’ll see before Nov. 3.

Apple is ramping up protections against ad tracking. These privacy protections will be part of Apple’s next software updates for all its phones scheduled for mid-September.

On July 12, Facebook announced that the dashboard buttons allowing users to block political ads were fully in place. It doesn’t take a marketing genius to realize that the more political ads a Facebook user sees, the more likely they’ll be to block those ads.

All this against a real world background that is, to understate the situation, a bit unsettled. Congress is making odd noises about election interference. And others are – perhaps not coincidentally – looking at the likelihood that there will be political ad fraud this year. It’s considered all but certain which is another reason why Adobe may have abandon the market.

Not to be outdone, it seems, the US Post Office is warning of a series of crises over mail delivery. Congress is in on this, too because USPS is warning that it may not be able to get ballots to everyone who wants one for voting at home or by mail.

What to do? Well, consider buying digital ads directly from local publishers to reach voters. Don’t know what they’re reading? Spot-On does. And we’ve got the experience and data – a list of 4,000 sites across the country – to support those buys.

Give us a shout. We’ll make your digital headaches go away.

A Matchless World

With the state primaries schedule slow down it’s time to survey the digital ad environment for fall.

Like almost everything else, it’s changing. Again.

The ability to use user data to target mobile devices and desktop computers is under new fire. And the one platform campaigns have used as a go-to to reach voters is, well, playing games that will hurt political campaigns.

Let’s start with Facebook. Under fire from brand advertiser (who pay the bills) with suspicions about their political motives under new scrutiny, the platform made an announcement that’s a cynical as anything it’s done so far. And that’s saying something.

Users will have the ability to block all political ads. So if your ad says “paid for by…..” Facebook will let a voter say “never more.”

So Facebook is now officially a casino: Campaigns pay their money, they take their chances on reaching voters and the house always wins. 

We’ve written enough about how so-called voter targeting on the open web is being eroded by various legislative and other protective measures so we’ll skip those revisits (here and here) for some new news.

Apple – as part of its battle for user trust against Facebook and Google – has announced that it will restrict targeting on iPhones. Apps will no longer be able to share data without user permissions. And those permissions must be actively granted so there will be warnings as well as an easy-to-read privacy guide for users.

As one tech newsletter put it: “This definition of tracking includes, data collected for ad targeting, location data, and email lists to share with data brokers, and a third-party [software developer kits] placed in the app to track user behavior.”

So the vendor who’s telling you they can track a phone into a home or event just got their wings clipped. It’s just a matter of time before Google’s Android devices catch up.

This doesn’t mean mobile advertising doesn’t work; it does and Spot-On has seen engagement rates that dwarf desktop for most of our campaigns. Devices can be targeted by language, age and geography, all powerful tools for reaching groups of voters. 

But the inaccurate perception that specific devices can and should be targeted with specific one-to-one ads is now official nonsense.

Our last bit of news concerns the buying and selling of consumer data – the fuel that drives voter targeting. With more publishers paying attention to the revenue generated by their websites, many are casting a jaundice eye on these data resellers who they believe are taking subscriber information without paying for it.

The New York Times is pulling out of its agreements. Other publishers are following – and quickly. So the ability to use this data, which is the backbone voter targeting is weakening. Again.

Oh, and a footnote on the TikTok Tulsa Trump Troll. TikTok, a Chinese-owned company does not accept political ads.

But here’s some good news: Local news outlets reach voters. They talk to people who are engaged with their communities. And they’re getting better at responding to queries about subscriber demographics with surveys suggesting that about 60% of regular local news readers are regular voters.

Spot-On has always believed in the power of local ad placements. Which is why we can help your campaign navigate this often difficult terrain.

Shoot us a note and we’ll share our 10 years of detailed knowledge about placements, outlets and ways to reach voters.

Crisis Driven Changes

Thinking differently about how to run your campaigns? It could be time to change up your digital ad game as part of that process. 

Two online publishing trends are coming together in a way that should encourage political campaigns to think differently about the tried-and-true method of reaching voters with digital technology.

First, the lingering and slow death of the 3rd party cookie, brought on by fatigue, frustrationand fraud, along with the enactment or threat of enactment of online privacy protection laws means the most popular means of buying political ads, known as “programmatic advertising,” is losing its shiny gloss.

That gloss included the ability to use redacted voter information in an attempt – in Spot-On’s eyes, an overstated one – to target specific voters. With the death of the 3rd party cookie, alltargeting loses its effectiveness.

At the same time, attention to local news sites, spurred on by the Covid-19 Pandemic – has increased dramatically. McClatchy, which has outlets from California to Miami – says its online readership is up by more than 60%. They’re not alone.

Things were headed this way even before the pandemic. In late February, Pew Research Center found that 75% of the folks they surveyed – from both political parties – did not believe Facebook or Google would be able to prevent election interference on their platforms. Another survey found that readers were more trusting of the ‘open web’, not platforms, meaning they trust ads on news and information sites, not the platforms’ walled gardens.

When it comes to TV, well, there’s more acceleration of existing trends that change campaign outreach.

Cable and satellite are seeing a slowdown in growth. One analyst told Variety:  “There are now as many non-subscribing households (46M) as there were pay TV subscribers in 1988.” In other words, the number of folks using online to access information and entertainment is now the size of the early days of the cable TV business – when political advertisers began to notice.

The pandemic is creating problems for political campaigns that won’t disappear with any fall-off in illnesses.  

Door-to-door outreach – the go-to voter contact method since Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign will change – that’s if campaigns are even using it.  And vote-by-mail is on the increase as more states solicit voters to register for that process. 

So, what to do? Well, as we said, these trends are accelerations – not new ground. So, there’s room to adapt.

Online publishers were looking for ways to reclaim ground lost to Facebook and Google before the pandemic hit; voters  distrusted social and other platforms before the crisis.  The use of vote-by-mail and remote contact tools like Zoom and WebEx isn’t new it’s just moved away from the office to daily life. Cable subscriptions have been falling for a while and the use of voter ‘targeting’ has been on the wane for at least a year.

But change is hard – even in the best of circumstances. So here are some real-world suggestions on how campaigns might adapt

Buy your political ads directly from publishers. It’s not just good business,  it’s good politics. Publisher are paying more attention to their website than ever before. Your ads will be seen – and appreciated.

            Spot-On has a database of more than 4500 trusted local news sites. We can tell you who serves your district and advise you on options and buying strategies.

A well-run online ad buy can avoid waste – without voter targeting.  Advertising on trusted news sites reaches voters. Look for ways to target by geographic and zip, not just voter lists. And use high-impact ads that can generate attention both inside and outside the newsroom.

            Spot-On’s new Pinpoint Persuasion buying platform lets you see your buy before its executed so you know where your ads are running and can see their impact on your campaign.

Plan now for fall outreach. Once pandemic panic fades, it’s going to be harder to draw voters to real life events. Help your virtual outreach efforts – phone calls, texting and video meetings – with targeted local ad buys that tell people reading the news what you’re doing so they can join in.

            With its database of more than 4500 trusted local news sites, Spot-On can help you plan ‘air cover’ for phone, in-person or virtual meetings that get voters to you and your event. 

Want more? Drop us a line and let us show how our new platform makes your ad buying easier, clearer and more secure. 

Notes On The Field From Home

It took a pandemic to completely destroy the false perception that digital events or online behavior was somehow distinct from other day-to-day activity. No longer can a campaign say that ‘digital’ is different from mail, telephone calling or television.

Increasing use of online tools – for doctors’ visits, business meetings and calls with friends and relatives – means what were once novelties are now somewhat reliable consumer services. These devices have been in our lives for some time but staying at home to work is just driving that, um, home.

The first evidence of this is the popularity of telephone town halls and Zoom meetings. Online is being used for lawmakers’ formal meetings as well as for campaign outreach.

The increased integration of digital tools for campaigns and voters should come with at least one warning: the “free” use of these tools means they’re less secure. That’s already provided some dramatic lessons about online privacy – for campaigns and for voters.

Looking to the summer when these tools will still be needed, it’s important to remember that intense crisis-driven interest won’t last. And door-to-door field work will be more restrained so the need to reach residents – not just voters, everyone in a community – will be a more necessary compliment to online gatherings.

Happily, interest in local media is surging. The chart below shows the dramatic increase in audiences across all news sites. This trend is likely to continue, pounding home to news outlets the value – maybe even the superior value – of their websites over their printed product.

While audiences are growing, ad revenue for many of these outlets has fallen dramatically. So publishers will start looking – and looking hard – for revenue. Political campaigns should expect to see less effective reach with ad buys that are made ‘programmatically’ as publishers begin to monitor the sales of their remnant ad placements.

Many voters and residents are seeing changes in how they vote, when they vote and where they vote as we move to the reschedule primary season and away from mandatory in-person voting. In particular, new vote-by-mail elections will need sustained support as well any online outreach via phone or video conference.

There are plenty of ways to do this but, for our money, the best one will be direct buys on reliable, known outlets that voters have trusted for years. Spot-On has a range of approaches to suit any and all budgets – for telephone town halls, video events or vote-by-mail and election changes.

Give us a shout or drop us a line to learn more.

A Virus Changes Many Things

Here’s a prediction: by the end of 2020 no political campaign of any size, anywhere in the US will say they can’t afford or don’t need digital outreach. None. Never. Ever.

The COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak is changing elections and campaigns. While it looks dramatic, it’s not sudden. Over the past year, almost everyone who participated in the Democratic primary brought new tactics to the table. And the cumulative effect is pretty interesting.

These are not huge changes but when you add them up – and look at our current environment – you see new ways of running political campaigns that are truly digital-centric.

This list was compiled with help from Echelon Insights founder Patrick Ruffini whose shrewd sense of how campaigns operate and his keen eye for the ‘new’ set Spot-On thinking. So we called him up. Here’s the innovation list we came up with.

The Grab-and-Grin Goes Down Market. Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign broke new ground with her selfie lines. It was an inspired piece of social network outreach but it also broke another mold. No longer are photos with candidates for high-dollar donors only. Everyone’s gonna want – and get – one now.

Crowd Sourcing Creative: Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s campaign had an idea: Don’t centralize your social media outreach, distribute it! Wanna show you support Mayor Pete? Download his logos and do your own thing on the platform of your choice.

More transparency: Sen. Corey Booker’s campaign struggled to raise money in a crowded field. So the campaign turned to supporters – and outsiders – explained the need and asked for contributions. No more shame in having trouble raising money – call it Kickstarter Politics.

Mo’ Money, Mo Innovation. Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg had the one thing all campaigns crave: unlimited cash. “Every possible thing was tried” Patrick notes. One highlight: the ‘influencer’ campaign on Insta and Tik-Tok. Another: truly funny self-deprecating humor that suited those platforms

Programming Note: There’s a lot more to say about Bloomberg as Patrick notes.

Buh-Bye Iowa. It took a big fat tech glitch but the confusion that was the Iowa Caucus “app” has caused a rethink on a few levels. It may be bright and shiny and it may be sold by your best friend from ’16 who now hangs out in Palo Alto or Sunnyvale – but that doesn’t mean it works.

Hacking is for Everyone. The press made a big deal about how the Nevada Caucus strung together a series of ad hoc tech solutions – Google Docs, texting, file sharing – for its reports. This is the opposite of a bright, shiny, untested (and expensive) product: A real world, working solution crafted for specific tasks. For cheap.

Sadly, so is Vicious Trolling. Team Spot-On is led by a woman who has her share of nasty, trolling comments from critics, strangers and, well, men. The Sanders’ campaign supporters who engaged in this creepy nonsense aren’t alone and they aren’t going away anytime soon. 

And We’re Not Done Yet. Already, telephone and virtual conference vendors, online organizing firms and a host of others are fielding calls and being asked for advice on what to do in a low-touch campaign environment.

So the biggest changes for 2020 are in front of us. Our bet is that some of the biggest innovations are as well.

Need help with your online efforts? Spot-On is here to help with a database of local news sites that can help you reach voters, boost a virtual town hall gathering or grow a list. Drop us a a line to see if we can help.

And follow Patrick Ruffini on Twitter. We do. He’s fantastic. 

Spot-On 2020: A Rough Ride

Are you getting that sneaky feeling that maybe – just maybe – the online political ad market is getting more unsettled? That this year – oh, why THIS year – is the one where the changes come fast and furious without warning? 

Reluctantly, Spot-On agrees. From our point-of-view there are three hot spots: privacy law changes, election oversight changes and wildly inconsistent market responses. But, as they say, forewarned is forearmed. So here’s a quick look ahead.


California has enacted new privacy legislation which took effect on January 1. There is a six month grace period but most companies doing business in the state – the ones that aren’t making noises about suing – are making preparations. Among them, large visible signs on websites that say “Don’t sell my data” and more visible privacy policies, cookie tracking and other notices.

That “don’t sell” option means that a site – and its data partners – can’t collect as much information about users as they have in the past. So the data pools (also called ‘3rd party data’) used to fuel the impact of voter targeted ads will become less reliable. An example: while writing this, I responded to an email from Alaska Airlines and told them not to implement “social cookies” that would help them show me ads on Facebook and Twitter (and allow Twitter and Facebook to know more about my travel choices).

It is a myth that voter targeted digital ads rely only on voter data. Voter targeting cannot work alone because using some voter information is prohibited. To function, voter data is combined with other data sets – that 3rd party data. A deterioration in the quality that data affects the accuracy of voter registration targeting.

It’s not just California; at least 10 other states are considering various privacy measures.

Election Law/Proposals

A great deal of fuss has been made about Federal Election Commission Chair Ellen Weintraub’s seemingly successful request to ban the use of ‘micro-targeting’ for political ad placements. “Micro-targeting” is the phrase used to describe the use of voter registration combined with specific web behavior data to send ads to particular demographic groups. 

Google grabbed a lot of attention when it said it would follow Weintraub’s recommendations. Starting this week, the Mississippi River of Ad Tech will not permit political ads on YouTube or search or display to be targeted below the geographic level (by zip) with some limited demographic information. 

Other firms are opting out entirely. Spotify, which was never equipped to handle the nuances of political ad sales has withdrawn completely. Good thing, too. They laughed in 2016 when Spot-On told them they needed a decision making structure. So has Twitter and the Chinese-owned TikTok.

But it’s worth asking if these public pronouncement are reliable. Some of this is lip-service and nothing more as Google has demonstrated in regard to state election laws.

Market Responses – Or Not

Facebook has declined to follow Google’s lead on microtargeting – and is challenging the California privacy laws – so smaller players have felt free to follow the flow of political ad dollars.

Third party entities that sell online ads are not complying with the suggested prohibition on micro-targeting. If Spot-On wants to microtarget political ads, we can. So can anyone else. Whether those ads are ‘quality’ placements is an open question. Our bet: They’re not. Which means campaigns will pay more for less effective ads.

Now Add Billionaires….

There’s gasoline to pour on this fire. Three billionaires are running for president. 

And brand advertisers aren’t going to treat political advertisers any differently. They’re going to ‘tier’ advertisers based on spend, for starters. And even without preferred treatment, wealthier campaigns will bid up the prices for ads, putting the less well-heeled at a disadvantage – even for junky inventory.

So here’s the hottest spot of all: Fair and consistent decisions make for fair and consistent elections. Inconsistent decisions made as a way to compensate for regulatory oversight make for, let’s call them….misunderstandings. 

Deliberately or not, consistency has gone out the window. Used to trafficking brand ads, the platforms don’t understand that setting requirements on tone or style, letting ‘the market’ dictate price or optimization is endorsing one form of political speech or point-of-view over another. In short, digital ad platforms are unprepared for the clear, consistent decision process that needs to be part of political ad sales

There’s More…But We’re Out of Time

Facebook is facing 48 state attorney general investigations. Google has 50. More Congressional oversight is in the works. The Federal Trade Commission is looking around; so is the U.S. Department of Justice.

So buckle up. All campaigns are going to be affected by these changes. And almost no one’s going to like it.

Spot-On’s got some ideas on how you can work through this mess. Start with a look at our 2020 Best Practices White Paper which takes a look at some of the problems ahead. Then drop us a note and we’ll set you up with a media plan that works.